Economy & Markets

The 19th century author Balzac wrote that “our worst misfortunes never happen, and most miseries lie in anticipation.”

An important yet counterintuitive issue for investors is that long-term interest rates have risen in recent weeks despite the Fed’s latest cuts. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, for instance, has jumped from a low of 3.62% to as high as 4.38%.

With just days to go until the presidential election on November 5, polls suggest it will be a close race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. Both candidates are campaigning hard in swing states, and investors may be worried about how either outcome might affect their portfolios.

As we begin the final quarter of the year, financial markets and the economy have defied the expectations of many investors. Rather than falling into recession, the economy has grown steadily, albeit at a slower pace, and inflation rates have fallen toward the Fed’s target.

The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has escalated in recent days, raising the risk of a full-scale war and marking another chapter in Middle East instability.

Financial markets have been resilient in recent weeks, almost fully recovering from the swings experienced at the beginning of August. Major stock market indices are once again approaching all-time highs, with the S&P 500 gaining 19.2% year-to-date with dividends, less than half of one percent below its peak.

With the presidential election just two and a half months away, the candidates’ economic policy platforms are only now beginning to take shape. This late unveiling has some investors concerned about how each policy platform might impact the economy and financial markets.

Financial markets have felt more fragile recently with investors concerned about the economy, the possibility that the Fed may be behind on cutting rates, and some disappointing tech earnings. Ironically, despite the market volatility last week, major indices were mostly unchanged from Monday to Friday.

Stocks have experienced a sharp pullback due to concerns over the timing of Fed rate cuts, a weakening labor market, and disappointing tech earnings. It's important for investors to stay level-headed.

As the summer heats up, the stock market is experiencing its own heat wave in the form of rising volatility. Market uncertainty has climbed as investors rotate out of large cap technology stocks and into a broader array of sectors and styles, including small caps.

From President Biden’s announcement that he will not be seeking re-election, to a rotation out of tech stocks and into small caps, recent events have added to market uncertainty. The S&P 500 recently declined 2.9% from its all-time high, while the Nasdaq pulled back nearly 5%.

The stock market has continued its historic rally with the S&P 500 gaining 19% year-to-date with reinvested dividends, contributing to a total return of 61% since the market bottom in 2022.